Latest Nielsen Poll

June 25-27 2009

Dissaproval of Turnbull up to 60 percent

Key Findings

• Two-party vote: ALP 58% (up 5 since May) lead Coalition 42% (down 5)
• First preferences: Labor 46% (up 2) ahead of Coalition 37% (down 6)
• Mr Rudd’s approval at 67% (up 3); 29% disapprove (down 3)
• Mr Turnbull’s approval at 32% (down 11); disapproval at 60% (up 13)
• Rudd leads as preferred PM by 66% (up 2) to Turnbull 25% (down 3)

Opposition Leader Malcolm Turnbull’s attack on the Government over the OzCar controversy appears to have backfired with disapproval of Mr Turnbull increasing 13 points to 60% and Labor’s lead increasing significantly according to the latest Nielsen Poll.  

The national poll of 1,400 respondents, taken from 25-27 June, shows Labor ahead on a two-party basis 58% (up 5 points since May) to the Coalition’s 42% (down 5). This reverses all the gains made by the Coalition in the May Nielsen Poll and is the same two-party vote as the previous Nielsen Poll in March. [The change in two-party preferred vote was statistically significant at the 95% level.]

On primaries Labor is on 46% (up 2 since May) and the Coalition is down 6 to 37%. The Greens lead the minor parties with 10% of the vote (up 2). The Democrats are on 1% (steady), Family First is on 2% (up 1) and independents are on 3% (up 1). Other parties are on 1% (steady). These primary votes are similar to levels of support in the March Nielsen Poll. [The changes in Coalition and Family First primary votes were statistically significant at the 95% level.]

When the two-party vote is calculated by how preferences flowed at the 2007 election, the result is Labor 57% (up 5), Coalition 43% (down 5).

Rudd vs Turnbull
Approval of Mr Rudd increased three points to 67%. Disapproval of Mr Rudd was down three points to 29%. [These changes were not statistically significant.]

Mr Turnbull’s approval was down 11 points to 32%, his lowest ever rating and the lowest for an Opposition Leader since Brendan Nelson’s 31% in August 2008 (this was Dr Nelson’s final rating before losing the leadership to Malcolm Turnbull the following month). Disapproval of Mr Turnbull was up 13 points to 60%, the highest disapproval rating for an Opposition Leader since May 2003, when 62% disapproved of ALP leader Simon Crean’s performance. [Changes in approval and disapproval for Mr Turnbull were statistically significant at the 95% level.]

Mr Turnbull’s net approval is -28% (32% approval minus 60% disapproval). The last Opposition Leader to have such a low net rating was Simon Crean (-30%) in September 2003. Mr Crean lost the leadership to Mark Latham in December 2003. Dr Brendan Nelson’s lowest net rating was -22% in August 2008.

Mr Rudd leads Mr Turnbull as preferred Prime Minister by 66% (up 2 points) to 25% (down 3). [These changes were not statistically significant.].


Majority have 'less favourable' impression of Turnbull

Key Findings

• 53% have ‘less favourable’ impression of Turnbull following OzCar scandal
• 27% have ‘less favourable’ impression of Swan
• 20% have ‘less favourable’ impression of Rudd
• 37% prefer Costello as Liberal leader; 21% prefer Hockey; 18% Turnbull and 10% Abbott

A majority of Australians have a ‘less favourable’ impression of Opposition Malcolm Turnbull as a result of the OzCar controversy, according to the latest Nielsen Poll.

The national poll of 1,400 respondents, taken from 25-27 June, found that 53% of voters have a ‘less favourable’ impression of Mr Turnbull (4% ‘more favourable’), 27% of voters have a ‘less favourable’ impression of Treasurer Wayne Swan (6% ‘more favourable’), and 20% have a ‘less favourable’ impression of Prime Minister Rudd (14% ‘more favourable’). Among Coalition voters 38% have a ‘less favourable’ opinion of Mr Turnbull.

Liberal Leadership

Respondents were asked to nominate their preferred leader of the Liberal Party out of Malcolm Turnbull, Joe Hockey, Tony Abbott and Peter Costello.

The first choice of voters was Peter Costello with 37% followed by Joe Hockey on 21% and Malcolm Turnbull on 18%. Tony Abbott was preferred by 10% of voters.

Among Coalition voters the order was: Costello 44%, Turnbull 23%, Hockey 23% and Abbott 7%. Among Labor voters: Costello 34%, Hockey 21%, Turnbull 15% and Abbott 12%.

PDF files below show voting intention, leadership approval ratings and preferred Prime Minister by calendar year since 1996. Note that no ACNielsen Federal Polls were conducted in 2002.

The Nielsen Poll is conducted exclusively for The Age and The Sydney Morning Herald.

Nielsen Poll 2009

Nielsen Poll 2008
ACNielsen Poll 2007
ACNielsen Poll 2006
ACNielsen Poll 2005
ACNielsen Poll 2004

ACNielsen Poll 2003

ACNielsen Poll 2001

ACNielsen Poll 2000

ACNielsen Poll 1999

ACNielsen Poll 1998

ACNielsen Poll 1997

ACNielsen Poll 1996