Latest Nielsen Poll

September 18-20 2008

Coalition gains ground

• Two-party vote: ALP 52% (down 3 since August) lead Coalition 48% (up 3)
• First preferences: Coalition 42% (up 3) ahead of Labor 41% (down 2)
• Mr Rudd’s approval at 61% (up 1); 31% disapprove (steady)
• Mr Turnbull’s approval at 45%; disapproval at 26%
• Rudd leads as preferred PM by 56% to Turnbull 33%

The Coalition is in its most competitive position since November 2006, according to the latest Nielsen Poll.

The national poll of 1,400 respondents, taken from 18-20 September, shows Labor ahead on 52% (down 3 points since August) and the Coalition on 48% (up 3). This is a swing to the Coalition of around 1% since the 2007 election.

On primaries Labor is on 41% (down 2) and the Coalition is up 3 points to 42%. The Greens lead the minor parties with 9% of the vote (steady). The Democrats are on 1% (steady), Family First is on 2% (steady) and independents are on 3% (down 1). Other parties are on 1% (down 1).

The Coalition is ahead on primary vote (42% to 41%) for the first time since September 2006.

When the two-party vote is calculated by how preferences flowed at the 2007 election, the result is Labor 51% (down 3 since August), Coalition 49% (up 3).

Movements in the two-party and Coalition primary voting intention in this poll were greater than the poll’s margin of error of +/- 2.6%, indicating a significant change since August.

“The 3 point increase in Coalition primary vote following the leadership change was slightly above the average change following opposition leadership spills over the last 33 years and about average over the last 20 years. While the change of leadership is likely to be one factor affecting voters, the global financial crisis and other factors may also have contributed to the improved vote for the Coalition” said Nielsen pollster John Stirton.

Rudd verse Turnbull

Approval of Mr. Rudd increased one point to 61%. Disapproval of Mr Rudd was steady at 31%.

Mr Turnbull’s first approval rating (after only a couple of days as leader) is 45%, 14 points higher than Dr Nelson’s final rating of 31%. Disapproval of Mr Turnbull is 26% (27 points lower than Dr Nelson’s final rating).

Mr Rudd leads Mr Turnbull as preferred Prime Minister by 56% to 33%. This is a lead for Mr Rudd of 23 points, compared to a 46 point lead over Dr Nelson last month. Mr Rudd’s lead over Mr Turnbull is similar in magnitude to the leads John Howard had over Kim Beazley in 2006 (Howard’s lead over Beazley averaged 20 points in 2006).

Majority favour a republic

• 52% (steady since April 2004) say Australia should become a republic
• 40% are more likely to vote for Coalition with Turnbull as leader; 28% less likely
• 29% say Costello should stay in parliament, 33% say he should resign

A majority of Australians (52%) think that Australia should become a republic, according to the latest Nielsen Poll.

The national poll of 1,400 respondents, taken from 18-20 September, shows majority support for a republic. 52% (steady since April 2004) are in favour of a republic and 40% are against (also steady).

“There are two things to remember about support for a republic. The first is that ‘yes’ voters generally feel less strongly about the issue than ‘no’ voters and are therefore more likely to change their minds. The second is that while there may be support for a republic in principle, support can quickly evaporate if the type of republic (the model) is not acceptable to voters. Of voters in favour of a republic in 2004, 77% preferred direct election of the president and 21% preferred appointment of a president by the parliament. In the 1999 referendum the latter model was defeated.” said Nielsen researcher John Stirton.

Do you think that Australia should become a republic? 

Turnbull verse Costello

Asked about the impact Malcolm Turnbull’s leadership would have on their vote, 40% of voters said they would be more likely to vote for the Coalition and 28% said they would be less likely. Of ALP voters, 22% said they would be more likely to vote for the Coalition and 44% said they would be less likely.

Respondents were asked ‘Should Peter Costello stay in parliament, resign from parliament or don’t you have an opinion on this?’ One in three (33%) said he should resign, 29% said he should stay and 36% said they did not have an opinion. 41% of Coalition voters thought Mr Costello should stay, compared to 20% of ALP voters.

PDF files below show voting intention, leadership approval ratings and preferred Prime Minister by calendar year since 1996. Note that no ACNielsen Federal Polls were conducted in 2002.

The Nielsen Poll is conducted exclusively for The Age and The Sydney Morning Herald.

Nielsen Poll 2008
ACNielsen Poll 2007
ACNielsen Poll 2006

ACNielsen Poll 2005

ACNielsen Poll 2004

ACNielsen Poll 2003

ACNielsen Poll 2001

ACNielsen Poll 2000

ACNielsen Poll 1999

ACNielsen Poll 1998

ACNielsen Poll 1997

ACNielsen Poll 1996