Latest Nielsen Poll

August 13-15 2009

Turnbull still struggling

Key Findings

• Two-party vote: ALP 56% (down 2 since June) lead Coalition 44% (up 2)
• First preferences: Labor 46% (steady) ahead of Coalition 38% (up 1)
• Mr Rudd’s approval at 68% (up 1); 27% disapprove (down 2)
• Mr Turnbull’s approval at 31% (down 1); disapproval at 60% (steady)
• Rudd leads as preferred PM by 67% (up 1) to Turnbull 24% (down 1)

The Rudd Labor Government would be returned comfortably if an election were held now according to the latest Nielsen Poll. 

The national poll of 1,400 respondents, taken from 13-15 August, shows Labor ahead on a two-party basis 56% (down 2 points since June) to the Coalition’s 44% (up 2). This result suggests a 3% swing to the ALP since the November 2007 election. [The change in two-party preferred vote from June to August was not statistically significant.]

On primaries Labor is on 46% (steady since June) and the Coalition is up 1 to 38%. The Greens lead the minor parties with 8% of the vote (down 2). The Democrats are on 1% (steady), Family First is on 2% (steady) and independents are on 3% (steady). Other parties are on 2% (up 1). These primary votes are similar to levels of support in the June Nielsen Poll. [The change in the ‘Other’ primary vote was statistically significant at the 95% level.]

When the two-party vote is calculated by how preferences flowed at the 2007 election, the result is Labor 56% (down 1), Coalition 44% (up 1).

Rudd vs Turnbull
Approval of Mr Rudd increased one point to 68%. Disapproval of Mr Rudd was down two points to 27%. [These changes were not statistically significant.]

Mr Turnbull’s approval was down 1 point to 31%, his lowest ever rating and the lowest for an Opposition Leader since Brendan Nelson’s 31% in August 2008 (this was Dr Nelson’s final rating before losing the leadership to Malcolm Turnbull the following month). Disapproval of Mr Turnbull was steady at 60%. [Changes in approval and disapproval for Mr Turnbull were not statistically significant.]

Mr Turnbull’s net approval is -29% (31% approval minus 60% disapproval). The last Opposition Leader to have such a low net rating was Simon Crean (-30%) in September 2003. Mr Crean lost the leadership to Mark Latham in December 2003. Dr Brendan Nelson’s lowest net rating was -22% in August 2008.

Mr Rudd leads Mr Turnbull as preferred Prime Minister by 67% (up 1 point) to 24% (down 1). [These changes were not statistically significant.]

Majority want Government to try again on ETS

Key Findings

• 55% say Govt should ‘try again in three months time’ on ETS
• Peter Costello is preferred Liberal Leader
• Majority approve of Kevin Rudd’s handling of China

A majority of Australians want the Federal Government to “try again in three months” to get its Emissions Trading Scheme through the Parliament, according to the latest Nielsen Poll.

The national poll of 1,400 respondents, taken from 13-15 August, found that 55% want the Government to try again, while 29% want the Government to “wait to see what the rest of the world does”. Just 12% want the Government to “abandon the Scheme altogether”.

A Nielsen Poll in June 2009 found that 65% of voters support the Government’s ETS. It is also worth recalling that a July 2008 Nielsen Poll also found:

Six in ten voters (60%) [said] they understand the concept of an emissions trading scheme ‘slightly’ (39%) or ‘not at all’ (21%). Around one in three (31%) said they understood the concept ‘fairly well’, but only 8% thought they understood it ‘very well’.

Despite this, there was widespread support for the introduction of an ETS for Australia. Two-thirds of voters (67%) support an ETS and 15% are opposed. [Nielsen Poll, July 2008]

Liberal Leadership

Respondents were asked to nominate their preferred leader of the Liberal Party out of Malcolm Turnbull, Joe Hockey, Tony Abbott, Peter Costello and Andrew Robb.

The first choice of voters was Peter Costello with 35% followed by Joe Hockey on 19% and Malcolm Turnbull on 17%. Tony Abbott was preferred by 10% of voters and Andrew Robb by 3%.

“Peter Costello remains preferred Liberal Leader. Given the sample size of this poll second place is once again a ‘statistical tie’ between Hockey and Turnbull,” Mr Stirton said.

Among Coalition voters the order was: Costello 42%, Turnbull 23% and Hockey 19%. Among Labor voters: Costello 32%, Hockey 19% and Turnbull 13%.

Rudd's handling of China

Almost 6 in 10 voters (58%) approve of Prime Minister Rudd’s handling of Australia’s relationship with China, while 26% disapprove. Labor voters (74%) were more likely to approve of Mr Rudd’s performance than Coalition voters (44%).

PDF files below show voting intention, leadership approval ratings and preferred Prime Minister by calendar year since 1996. Note that no ACNielsen Federal Polls were conducted in 2002.

The Nielsen Poll is conducted exclusively for The Age and The Sydney Morning Herald.

Nielsen Poll 2009

Nielsen Poll 2008
ACNielsen Poll 2007
ACNielsen Poll 2006
ACNielsen Poll 2005
ACNielsen Poll 2004

ACNielsen Poll 2003

ACNielsen Poll 2001

ACNielsen Poll 2000

ACNielsen Poll 1999

ACNielsen Poll 1998

ACNielsen Poll 1997

ACNielsen Poll 1996